Immigration
Leave has blamed immigrants for all sorts of things; filling up the country, taking jobs, bringing down the NHS..
- Net migration to the UK last year was 330,000. A figure banded about a lot. Sounds like a lot of people
- 184,000 came from the EU, the rest from outside (which the UK government can control)
- 184,000 is likely a peak number, cited as being due to the UK's relative economic outperformance vs the EU in recent times, and high unemployment in the EU. However, the EU is now growing again (around 2% per year), and unemployment is falling sharply:
- We know statistically that migrants are less likely to claim benefits, more likely to be in work, and contribute more to the economy than they take out
- New rules will mean migrants need to have been paying taxes for 4 years before claiming in-work benefits.
- If there are no jobs due to migrants taking them all, how come UK unemployment (5.1%) is at the lowest level in a decade (5.0% in Dec 2005)
- The Tory cuts to the Health spending amount to 20% of the total budget. I think this has a far bigger impact than migration.
- According to the British Medical Association, 24% of doctors are migrants
- The UK's proportion of immigrants (13%) is lower than many other countries, including those with point based immigration; Australia 28%, Canada 21%
- "Immigration will go crazy when Turkey joins the EU". It currently meets just 1 out of 35 accession criteria. 1. Besides, we can veto. If Germany don't beat us to it.
- It's a 2-way street; The World Bank estimates there are between 4.5million and 5.5million British migrants abroad, including 1.2million in the EU. The Spanish PM has already warned implications for Brits being able to live and work there if we leave the EU
The Economy
- Pretty much every credible economist and financial body agrees that the UK will take a hit to GDP by exiting the EU.
- Half of our goods go to the EU, but only 7% of the EU exports go to the UK:
- GBP will certainly devalue - most estimates I've seen range from 10% to about 20%. Imports will get a lot more expensive
- Just take a look what happened to GBP last week when Leave got ahead in the polls:
- Anecdotally, my company are seeing several investors keeping cash on the sidelines pending the vote. I read somewhere that just the effect of the uncertainty ahead of the vote and lack of investment has already cost the UK 0.5% of growth this year.
- It's probably fair to say that the Treasury's assessment of impact to the UK economy is overly pessimistic. A more rational assesment still shows we'll see considerable pain though. Importantly, many of our trading partners get weakened too:
"Taking Back Control"
- The UK is a sovereign entity by law, the EU is not
- The highest legislative body in the UK is Westminster, not Brussels
- The UK sometimes refers to the EU courts where there is a conflict with UK law, but only where this has been written into our own legislation
- The EU is run by the (elected) governments of the member states and the European parliament, with majority voting (although 90% of decisions are taken by consensus). Yes there are lots of bureaucrats in the background, but they don't make the decisions.
- I've seen some commentators say the UK can easily renegotiate trade agreements, but the majority are certain this won't be the case and new deals will take several years
- The most likely scenario would be a "Norway"; we still have access to the single market, still pay for it, still allow free movement of people, but have no say. How is that control?
- Swiss-style is unacceptable as it excludes Financial services, and is all bilateral agreements (complex and a lot of time and effort).
- It is not in the EU's interest to grant the UK special treatment, as the real risk to them isn't that they can't trade with the UK efficiently, it's that other countries try to follow suit and exit the EU. Besides, we can't get concessions now, why would we when we're no longer paying to the EU?
- The US have already said it'd be a low priority to renegotiate trade agreements with the UK (a market of 65M people, vs the EU's 500M)
Regulation
- In order to operate as a common single market, for goods and services to be sold across borders, there has to be a common framework of regulation, rather than 28 different sets for each country.
- If we want to continue to sell into the EU, it's not as if we can dodge the regulation. We comply, or we can't sell into a destination that currently takes 50% of our goods exports.
Anyway, I think you can guess which way I voted.
