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Funny thing about my testing the residual values on the French market.

Background : to figure out how many buyers I was competing against in FR - and check if the resale prices demanded by Audi agents were in line with the buyers- I simulated a selling ad for a Grey Avus + Sat Nav with 50-60 000 km and 12-month warranty.
I used the print and web magazine La Centrale Des Particuliers, the absolute leader in second-hand ads in France.

I started advertising at Eur 45.6K, then 43.9K and finally 42.1K (cheapest of all ads).

Since I started the ad, the average asked-price went from EUR 54K (Jan-15) to EUR 51K (Feb-6) to EUR 49K (Feb-20).

In other words, it moved from most offers being in the 55K range (black dots) down to the 50K and under range (red dots).

Here's the chart with all offers, for the 3 consecuting dates.



Eric

Can you just please explain what the chart is actually saying Eric.
The Y axis is the price..right?
The X axis is er....... offers?

What do the 12 black triangles signify? Is each one an offer?

Probably just me being thick [img]images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] but I'm sure there is something in this [img]images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Sure.

Y axis is Price in Euro, X is the rank of each offer (from cheapest to most expensive).

All black triangles represent the offers on Jan-15.
The Blue squares : all offers from Feb-06.
The Red dots : all offers from Feb-20.

So the cheapest on on Jan-15 was the Black triangle at 45.5K, the second cheapest was at 47.5K and the third at 49K.

Then on Feb-20, the cheapest one was 42.1K, the second at 44K, etc.

Might be easier with lines though, and just two series.

Eric

Here's a light one, with only the Jan-15 and Feb-20 ads.

Same principles : Y is the price and X is the rank of each offer from Cheapest to Most Expensive.



Eric

Taipan,
I'm impressed by your market studies!!

Now here's an idea to hopefully understand even better what is going on there:

instead of ranking the offers from cheapest to most expensive as you did, if you have the data, you might want to examine
- are those the same cars being offered at continuously lower prices over time (i.e., nobody wants them so seller reduces price by looking also at your low price). If yes, then I'll let you be creative about your own market tactics
- are those newly advertised cars "entering the market" and looking at the prices around. If that's the case, then the tactics are less easy for you...

enjoy the researching, we here are looking forward to
see what is happening in France

d.

Hi Don,

It's a combination of the two cases you described.

Plus a 3rd one : when your ad runs out, La Centrale will contact you the following week for a repeat run at discount ad price. The option is yours to decide for a month, I think.
-> These ads suddenly pop up as new but are old-running ones indeed, with an activity un-archived.

In any case, we see :

- individual cars advertised at 62-65K dropping to 55-58K the following week, and cars at 50-55 dropping to 45-50K range over a longer period (so I assume the sellers didn't get a serious lead from a potential buyer -they wouldn't risk cutting the ad price in the middle of a negociation).

- more "new" ads coming in at 45-50K range.

FYI, I got one email at 43.9K (but the guy wanted me to buy-back his other car, although my ad said I am NOT a dealer) and 2 different calls at 42.1K (including one hectic guy who called my mobile 17 times over a week-end).

As for tactics, my ad is running another 2 weeks and I'll leave it at that price (you feel a bit weird answering the calls :" hello, you're part of a market study, congratulations, how's your wife ?")
[img]images/graemlins/rocketwhore.gif[/img]

In any case, I found this ads system to be a very inefficient marketplace compared to Ebay and the likes.
Nothing beats a bidding place where everyone can see buyers' and sellers' positions so we know where the market is, and sellers don't waste money paying for ads that are out of it, and future buyers don't assume unrealistic residual values in their purchasing decisions.

Eric

Taipan,

wish you lot's of luck "playing" and "beating" the market.And, just get the job done, so you can take out the "RS4 getting closer" from your signature and add "Got the dream machine finally"!

good luck
D.

Thanks Don [img]images/graemlins/nodder.gif[/img]

I am in the hands of Time and I trust She can only bring me joy and happiness.

Eric
PS 1 : I think they're all playing the market but none are beating it... [img]images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
PS 2 : I'm looking for a Red one, none offered since November. I may completely melt when I see one and do a 65K check asap [img]images/graemlins/bowdown.gif[/img]

Hi Eric,

nice work.

You said no red ones, how about these:
http://www.mobile.de/cgi-bin/search.pl? ... 1117099512

or this absolutely mint one (has come down 4k€ since beginning of Jan03)
http://www.mobile.de/cgi-bin/search.pl? ... 1117130316

Regards,
Jani

Hi Jani,

Sorry, meant in France.
100% true about the Red ones on Mobile.de but I've dropped that source.

Being in Paris, it's a real hassle to drive 1500km return just to see a car (done once, not a second time).
Plus all the issues with int'l deposits & escrow-payments (you can't write a Euro check from a French bank to a German person, not allowed yet), importing and registering, and if something turns out weird/nasty about the car (ask me about the M Coupé...), the legal proceedings are just a plague.

So I'm waiting to find one from a French Audi agent, with a 12-month warranty.
Btw, 90% of prices above come from Audi or BMW agents.

Eric

Taipan,

just pick one....
d.

AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 04.2000
40200km 380
280 CHF 69'900.00
EUR 47'762.00

AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 02.2001
67300km 380
280 CHF 69'995.00
EUR 47'827.00


AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 01.2001
42000km 380
280 CHF 79'900.00
EUR 54'595.00


AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 11.2000
44000km 380
280 CHF 81'800.00
EUR 55'893.00


AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 08.2000
10000km 380
280 CHF 94'800.00
EUR 64'776.00


AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 05.2001
26000km 380
280 CHF 99'500.00
EUR 67'987.00


AUDI
RS4 Avant quattro Kombi
rot 07.2002
0km 380
280 CHF 117'900.00
EUR 80'560.00


Source: www.carforyou.ch
Criteria used: Audi, >380PS (bhp), red

Don, lucky you !
Switzerland looks like another great places for RS4, not to mention the Alpine roads (and the slopes, yes !) [img]images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Eric

oops, ignore previous mail, while I was writing it, it seems you have responded to Jani explaining your focus on France.

Just let us know when you get your first adrenalin shot in your very own red RS4
d.

It's interesting, but I guess it's supply and demand, so if I was advertising my RS4 in the paper I usually check out the other prices, and would price mine accordingly, so it is feasable that you could lower the asking price, the question is I wonder if it would work in reverse, so that if I ever wanted to sell my car I could raise the prices with a few higher price adverts [img]images/graemlins/spineyes.gif[/img]

forgot to mention, that switzerland got about twice its allocated quota, thats how I managed to get mine - as part of the second quota, and there are still some brand new ones around.