B9 RS4 ?

[doodlebug]

Agreed. There will be change.

Porsche are most likely to left untouched as they are fairly autonomous, might also mean there's less pressure for them to share VAG platform.

Lamborghini and Bentley both make big margins, so they are here to stay. They are also furthest away in terms of brand damage.

VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda are the problem children. Might also force Audi to focus on main product and away from premium end. Frankly that wouldn't be a bad thing, they aren't great at servicing that market now.

[Graeme4130]

This "professor of motoring" dude on the radio reckons its a potential 50Bn GBP problem. With pre-crisis profits of 10bn or so and the company image in tatters he reckons the heart of the business (polo, golf, octavia) where his exact words.

Who knows? Not me, but change is upon them and difficult choices will need to be made.
I say this though, I will eat my left bollock if they stay as is, in one piece
Parts of the business will go as will model lines

Imo

If I was VW, then the first thing I'd do, from both a commercial and PR perspective, is try and get any other car makers who have similar sneaky tactics (i.e.I suspect, most of them) in the same boat.
The reason for this is two fold ;
1) To reduce the PR problem (i.e. we look bad, but then so does everyone else, so it becomes a more widespread automotive problem)
2), and more cunningly ; VW are cash rich enough to pay the large fines without insolvency. However, should the same broad brush 'per car' fine be applied to some of the less profitable car makers (most of them), it would mean closing plants and stripping out assets. No governing body or fine imposing committee is going to put 10's of thousands of people out of work, so the fine would be reduced accordingly, and this would have to be applied consistently car marker to car maker.

Having a multi $bn fine hanging over your head is a very good incentive to make a full study of everyone else's cars (especially given VAG's huge engineering resource) and start blowing whistles on them too. They'll be playing corporate delaying tactics at the moment in order to be able obtain the luxury of time to complete such studies.
Either way, I wouldn't want to be in many of the head bods shoes right now as jobs will go left, right and centre over this.
When I was at Honda, we used to refer to the impending bollocking as Pineapples, as it was like getting one shoved up your backside. i.e. "I've been called to the boardroom for a pineapple"

[Graeme4130]

On the positive, now is a reasonable time to buy Volkswagon shares, and if the end result is that they need to retro fit DPF's (catalysts) to all cars with the issue, then it'd be a fantastic time to buy into PGM's - Specifically Palladium, as the supply of the metal has always been limited by availability, and the simple supply/demand ratio will cause the price to skyrocket if VW have to start buying it up in bulk

[S4WON]

Some great points there Graham, although I understood the problem to be fixable via software and not needed anything physical. Id imagine the boffins have already priced it in, but yeah, not settled, might be worth a punt. Ive not checked the share price since the initial 30% or so hit.

[PetrolDave]

Some great points there Graham, although I understood the problem to be fixable via software and not needed anything physical.

Some reports are saying that to meet the CARB standards some VAG diesels will not only need software updates but will also have to have urea injection systems ("Bluetec") fitted. So it may be more than just software in some markets.

[PetrolDave]

Having a multi $bn fine hanging over your head is a very good incentive to make a full study of everyone else's cars (especially given VAG's huge engineering resource) and start blowing whistles on them too. They'll be playing corporate delaying tactics at the moment in order to be able obtain the luxury of time to complete such studies.

When I worked for an automotive consultancy it was common knowledge in the automotive industry that engine management "tuning" was done in order to pass not only emissions tests but other tests such as the drive-by noise test.

Increased sophistication in that "tuning" by VAG is what has been uncovered by the regulators and I'm 100% confident that VAG are not the only company to have implemented "tuning" to pass emissions tests - that the emissions of cars from all manufacturers are broadly similar lends extra weight to that view.

[doodlebug]

Indeed. Does prove my theory that diesel is evil though.

There's no way VW are alone, just the first to be caught.

I foresee tax on diesel cars being adjusted in the near future.

[smudge]

Someone on one of the Facebook Audi groups posted this the other day:

My theory is though and having some knowledge of the states which is where it all started. This was all leaked and not from VAG but one of the big 3 American car manufacturers. The states and these other manufacturers do NOT want VAG to become bigger than their own. Also the government see companies like VAG sitting on a huge cash pile and want some of that and always look at companies like them to get them on something and then rinse them, but just enough to keep them going. This applied to BP with the oil disaster, of course that wasn't good, but the government took about 16 billion from them from payouts and fines etc, that is a lot of money and fucked BP in the states. You watch the states will sue them almost dry and the same across the world now but they will keep going but it will have a huge impact. All for something as I see it not that major but illegal nonetheless! Let's face it a few cars pumping out a little more crap than stated isn't going to save the world. With the states and China the worst polluters! Whole thing is a joke!

You can't knock a good conspiracy can you....

[doodlebug]

I'm sure there's an element of the US thing, they do like to police everything. Maybe GM et al should stop making such <beep> cars. Chevrolet Malibu anyone?!

[Covkiller]

Americans = Idiots
They can't even work out simple maths eg you buy something for $5.20
You hand over €10.20
The cretin behind the counter looks at the money, can't work it out and goes and gets the manager.
A perfect example of a complete moronic nation.
I do it every time I go to America. Not the States.
Give me my $5 back !

[S4WON]

Not ALL americans, just those without a passport....

[Graeme4130]

[youtube][/youtube]

Not ALL americans, just those without a passport....

I heard it was the Syrian immigrants. They're to blame for everything, right ?

[S4WON]

Yeah, that Steve Jobs has a lot to answer for

[bam_bam]

Someone on one of the Facebook Audi groups posted this the other day:

My theory is though and having some knowledge of the states which is where it all started. This was all leaked and not from VAG but one of the big 3 American car manufacturers. The states and these other manufacturers do NOT want VAG to become bigger than their own. Also the government see companies like VAG sitting on a huge cash pile and want some of that and always look at companies like them to get them on something and then rinse them, but just enough to keep them going. This applied to BP with the oil disaster, of course that wasn't good, but the government took about 16 billion from them from payouts and fines etc, that is a lot of money and fucked BP in the states. You watch the states will sue them almost dry and the same across the world now but they will keep going but it will have a huge impact. All for something as I see it not that major but illegal nonetheless! Let's face it a few cars pumping out a little more crap than stated isn't going to save the world. With the states and China the worst polluters! Whole thing is a joke!

You can't knock a good conspiracy can you....

Errrm, you can and I'll give it a go.

I have been following this case for some time and I've hoovered up my fair amount of bullshit on the matter, BUT this person! This person is a fucken <beep> and has zero knowledge of the States... or very little else for that matter.
About 5400 people die in the US from air related pollution every year, now, while I don't give a flying fcuk (because I don't even have any CATs - then again, I'm not a multinational conglomerate carmaker), it's still a lot of people to die and it's lazy or stupid to label this "not that major". It is huge!
This is a multi-national corporate and the largest car maker in the world. What is a joke however, is how VW contravened so many federal, state emission laws and environmental regulations, that's the laughable bit, the perplexing but is why but I'll get to that.
So, the software that detects the test has been in the wild since 2009. They've been pursued by Californian air regulators for the last two years, to explain what was going on with their cars and VW just dodged them, VW were given every chance to fix their cars in that time. They were finally by run down by the EPA to and made to explain themselves, that's when they owned up to one of the biggest blow to the car industry since the Cuban missile crisis (I think, I just assume that was the cause of the previous 'downsizing' of ICE).
The irony is, they weren't found out by a leak from 'Merican competitors, over 2 years ago they submitted some of their own 4cyl TDi cars for cleanliness testing by a small non government organisation, it was for some PR bumf but the International Council on Clean Transportation actually found that the cars were not clean, actually far from clean. So, they reported their findings to California Air Resources Board (Which I love that they're known as CARB), now, if you're American OR you think of yourself as "having some knowledge of the states", you'll know that you; DO. NOT. FCUK. WITH. CARB. The only thing scarier than CARB are the EPA... and now we've come full circle.
Throw all of the conspiracy crap and China are worse motives you want at it, VW did this sh1t on purpose and there is no one else to blame.

But I just don't get it, the devil's fuel is less than 2% (some same it's 1%) of the US consumer market but the NOx controls in the US are some of the toughest in the world, if not THE toughest and their fines reflect that. It was never going to work, VW just got greedy and they lobbied their way into America under a guise that diesels are clean, but they're not, not even a little bit. It's simple, VW wanted to beat Toyota, they wanted to be the biggest in the world and to do that, they cheated, now, they're caught. Who can blame the US for ripping cash from VW and fining them? Should they just say "nah, that's alright maaaate. What? These tests? Naaaah, we just do those for fun". It won't stop there either, the class-action law suits will be brutal and I can see a bunch of other countries jumping on the VW bashing wagon too. Just to be the biggest in the world, I don't get it, who signs off on that as a corporate strategy?!

Now, here's the other massive problem that I just cannot get my head around. The VAG IL4TDI in question needs to stay at or under 0.07 grams NOx per mile, which, with the software in "test mode" it does. But under normal driving conditions it pushes out 40 times NOx than what is legally allowable! Now, if they retune/redesign these cars to put out 0.07 grams NOx per mile - how driveable do you think these cars will be? They will useless. You'd get more pull out of an asthmatic granny. Not to mention the MPG will 'probably' go through the roof but I'm not sure on that one, I'm not an expert but actually I don't care.
I digress.
I just cannot see how there is way out for any US VAGs running this engine. Even with heavy modification I just don't see how these cars will be usable, even then, I just don't think they can pass the tests again without cheating, and the tests are going to get HARDER! These cars out in the wild will be a noose around VW's neck. They do worse to buy them back off their owners and get the fcuk out of the US.

Another noose for ya. Yes, VW have ooodles of cash, the hard stuff, true bottom line folding stuff - lovely cash. BUT, as with all manufactures these days, they don't operate like a car company of old. They kinda operate like a bank or casino (look up captive-finance to get an idea), so their position is heavily out of reach if counter-parties, debtors and lenders decide to roll over or take a run on them, say, if they think VW might fall over?
Put it this way, they've got about €35B hard cash, anywhere from €150B - €170B in assets but the finance arm has about €60B in debit, if lenders made a run on this debit over the next year, combined with low sales... well, no one knows but it's not 'great' is it?
There's also the massive unknown with VAG's derivatives arm that off-sets currency, interest rate and other complicated mathematical risks that I don't understand. Apparently their derivatives weigh in at €200B, again a massive exposure they might want to reduce. So their €35B doesn't really mean squat if the wolves cometh. I don't think for a second think they'll go down but this will be very damaging in a time when everyone is super competitive, this is money they should be throwing into R&D, so safe to say those big spending R&D days will be gone for a long time.

What will happen next? Meh, I dunno know, I just wanted to prove that some Facebook poster was a fucken idiot.

Well, maybe I 'might' have an opinion (not like me, is it?)

1. In an unprecedented move, VW corp will hang out the people responsible for this software entering the consumer market. The US will then try these individuals as criminals. The US said they'd never let this sort of thing happen again after the GM class-action. GM refused to hand over the names of managers who knew about defects, it got very serious but they made a deal to recall 1.6 million cars.

2. Rudolf Diesel will turnover in his grave and with that, this will be the beginning of the end for the diesel engine. I've been working on that one, honing it while talking to clients and anyone else who will listen, and that's the sentence I've ended up with.
But seriously, the EU will probably get tough on NOx in line with the US and it will probably also jettison those fcuking stoopid "official fuel consumption test procedures that have been in use since the 1970s. EU Directive 80/1268/EEC as amended or, for Euro 5 vehicles onwards, Regulation 692/2008 describe the tests which all new cars on sale after 1 January 2001 are required to take." These tests are not regulated and they've become a joke. The tricks used to achieve the MPG claims are almost a pure fabrication. These tests will come under some very heavy scrutiny creating a knock on, there will be certain engines out there that just won't be viable any more, shortening engine lifecycles much sooner than their manufactures were expecting. It could be ruinous for some.

3. Other car manufactures will get busted by the EPA. Simplez. I'd be amazed if others don't get found to be up to the same chicanery as zee Germanz. Hell, there will probably be other Hunz involved soon enough.

4. There will be a downturn in US sales of zee Germanz productz. Why, because 'Merican's are like that, and Germany know this too, they'll be worried that other German industry will be affected.

5. Petrol ICE will get even better, so will hybrids bla bla bla. With diesel dying, the R&D money will go into the cleaner stuff.

6. I'll still be a <beep>.

[HYFR]

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&sourc ... djslEeKfLw